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Will China Fall? 

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Will China Fall?

by The TechCast Team 

With global stock markets reeling, the big threat on most minds today is that China—once called the next superpower—might finally collapse. TechCast draws on its forecasts to provide some guidance.

           Although China has been one of the world's fastest-growing economies, averaging 10 percent GDP growth for nearly three decades, it began losing momentum in 2012. While the pace of China's development has produced short-term gains, the policies used to achieve them have compromised long-term economic stability. As a result of emphasizing manufacturing and exports rather than consumption, permitting poor quality, and lax banking practices, China is now experiencing a housing bubble, mounting debt, high unemployment, severe pollution, and growing social unrest.

          These forces have caused a ripple effect throughout the economy. The TechCast Global Brain Trust of 130 experts estimates a 25 percent probability of China's collapse, so it's quite possible but not likely. Caution is in order nonetheless. If China did collapse, our experts collectively believe it would have a serious impact, requiring urgent political and economic reforms, causing domestic social transformations and dire repercussions for the global economy. Economies around the world could follow China in rapid decline.

Fuente: http://www.techcastglobal.com/home/-/asset_publisher/icgQEJnCo7Dy/content/will-china-fall-/maximized;jsessionid=975A89B21B5E6B91C0B36A5B7BD002BD?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.techcastglobal.com%2Fhome%3Bjsessionid%3D975A89B21B5E6B91C0B36A5B7BD002BD%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_icgQEJnCo7Dy%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_state%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn-2%26p_p_col_pos%3D1%26p_p_col_count%3D3