Forecasting

« Back

Will China Fall? 

 Print Will China Fall?

Will China Fall?

by The TechCast Team 

With global stock markets reeling, the big threat on most minds today is that China—once called the next superpower—might finally collapse. TechCast draws on its forecasts to provide some guidance.

           Although China has been one of the world's fastest-growing economies, averaging 10 percent GDP growth for nearly three decades, it began losing momentum in 2012. While the pace of China's development has produced short-term gains, the policies used to achieve them have compromised long-term economic stability. As a result of emphasizing manufacturing and exports rather than consumption, permitting poor quality, and lax banking practices, China is now experiencing a housing bubble, mounting debt, high unemployment, severe pollution, and growing social unrest.

          These forces have caused a ripple effect throughout the economy. The TechCast Global Brain Trust of 130 experts estimates a 25 percent probability of China's collapse, so it's quite possible but not likely. Caution is in order nonetheless. If China did collapse, our experts collectively believe it would have a serious impact, requiring urgent political and economic reforms, causing domestic social transformations and dire repercussions for the global economy. Economies around the world could follow China in rapid decline.

Fuente: http://www.techcastglobal.com/home/-/asset_publisher/icgQEJnCo7Dy/content/will-china-fall-/maximized;jsessionid=975A89B21B5E6B91C0B36A5B7BD002BD?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.techcastglobal.com%2Fhome%3Bjsessionid%3D975A89B21B5E6B91C0B36A5B7BD002BD%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_icgQEJnCo7Dy%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_state%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn-2%26p_p_col_pos%3D1%26p_p_col_count%3D3

Noticias de interés

New Technology Forecast -- Next Gen Planes

by The TechCast Team 

TechCast researchers have done it again with this exciting new forecast on Next Gen Planes. Here's the Summary, and our members can access the full forecast below.

     The world of air travel and transport is about to change dramatically. Design innovations are integrating wing, cabin and engines to improve aerodynamics and reduce fuel usage. Electric propulsion is being demonstrated and hypersonic planes are being developed. New air traffic controls are appearing also. Unmanned aircraft, repackaged from technologies developed for the military, are being used for inspection, photography, surveillance, and delivery of goods and services. And although we've long considered the idea that people would fly to work in private aircraft a bit fanciful, even this once outrageous indulgence could soon come to pass. Parimal Kopardekar, NASA Principal Investigator for UAV Guidance, says, "My belief is that every home will have a drone, and every home will serve as an airport at some point in the future."

      TechCast Experts estimate Next Gen Planes will reach the 15 percent adoption level and take off commercially about 2020-2025, eventually creating new economic demand running a half trillion dollars/year.

Fuente: http://www.techcastglobal.com/home/-/asset_publisher/DWy8w62OOL5W/content/new-technology-forecast-next-gen-planes/maximized;jsessionid=975A89B21B5E6B91C0B36A5B7BD002BD?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.techcastglobal.com%2Fhome%3Bjsessionid%3D975A89B21B5E6B91C0B36A5B7BD002BD%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_DWy8w62OOL5W%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_state%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn-3%26p_p_col_pos%3D1%26p_p_col_count%3D3

Autores con historia

En esta sección publicaremos historias interesantes de los diferentes autores relacionados con el mundo de la Prospectiva y el Marketing

Autores Relacionados

Michel Godet

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

Peter Shwartz

Francisco José Mojica

Gaston Berger

Bertrand de Jouvenel

Heugues de Jouvenel

Guillermina Baena Paz

Antonio Alonso Concheiro

Theodore Glemm

Theodore J. Gordon

Jorge Beinstein

Peter Senge

Alvin Toffler

Michael Porter

Seth Godin

Jurguen Klarich

Peter Drucker

Russell L. Akoff

Paul D. Converse

Theodore Levitt

Daniel Yankelovich

Martin Fishbeing

Russell L. Haley

David Aaker

Philip Kotler

Jagdish sheth

Leonard M. Lodish

George S. Day

Iremos agregando más autores...

Introducción

De lo que te hablaremos en este blog:

En el campo de la Prospectiva como en el del Marketing encontramos diferentes autores y cada uno plantea una visión acorde a sus experiencias de vida, experiencias laborales o principales corrientes por las que se rige o de alguna manera sigue. Es allí donde empiezan a generarse nuevos conceptos, pequeños cambios que se le agregan a conceptos que han trascendido en el mundo empresarial y de lo mercados, y es precisamente ahí donde con pequeñas inclusiones,  se da un comienzo para nuevas aplicaciones y visiones que nos llevan a darnos cuenta de que las cosas van cambiando y es muy necesario que esta actualización, si se puede llamar paso a paso, se de.

Cuando hablamos de Prospectiva específicamente y nos remontamos a la corriente determinista encontramos que los diferentes precursores, líderes o creadores de esta disciplina le han venido agregando con el paso de tiempo, diferentes métodos y sustentos que la han hecho cada día más sólida, tanto como para poder hablar hoy (2015) que diferentes países, territorios, ciudades y empresas a nivel mundial se han percatado no solo de su existencia sino, de la relevancia que puede traer el hecho de incorporar los resultados de dichos estudios en el direccionamiento estratégico que se convierte en la hoja de ruta para llegar a ese futuro anhelado.